Just two weeks after the Colonel and I mocked up our first set of player rankings for next season, its already time to start reviewing our top 25....

The biggest mover hands down has to be Yao Ming, who is not only almost definitely sidelined for all of next season, but might also be calling it a career.   The situation is so severe that he is apparently considering having what we have just learned is the "Ilguaskas" where they "lower the arch on your foot"... and while that worked out for Ilgauskas in the end, if i recall correctly it took him a couple of seasons to be fully healed.

So any team drafting him this year is looking at either:

A) Being able to play him at the end of next season, if he were to come back.

B) Keeping him next season

I find the first to be unlikley - its not like anyone's really expecting Yao to be a fast healer - and of poor value in the event he returns anyway.  If he makes it back for say the last month of the season, that coincides with the 2nd and 3rd round of KF playoffs... so you'd have to not only make the playoffs, but likely win your 1st round match-up without him (and without ANY contribution from the slot used to draft him from), only to face a most serious ball check of whether you're willing to gamble on an untested center returning from a season long absence on what would apparently be a pretty decent team.  I just don't see it.

For those thinking of the second I have two words: Elton Brand.   A popular 4th rounder back in the summer of '07, there was many a 2nd rounder sacrificed last year for this services and guess what?  He sucked and was then out for the year and none of the teams that kept him ended up making serious playoff runs.

And what we're hearing about the injury's code orange threat level to Yao's career is unlike anything that ever came out concerning Brand.  Can you imagine anyone giving a Yao a max 5 year deal next summer?

Where does this leave us?  I think Yao is a 5th rounder at best and i probably wouldn't touch him personally until the 6th... for now we'll split the difference and place him in the 72nd slot (one spot behind fellow injured Rocket superstar T-Mac), bumping everyone above him a spot and sneaking Andrew Bynum into the 25th overall place.

And what about the rest of the top 25?

Well I'm still real confident about the Big Six of LeBron, Wade, Dwight Howard, Chris Paul, Kobe and Duncan.   No matter how I look it at, when you break it down by supporting casts, injury risk, position and upside potential, I always come up with these six in that same order.  And in fact did before the Colonel and I proceeded to match it exactly when we drafted.   The only I way I see people really deviating from this is based on personal preferences or drafting for position needs on teams with solid keepers.  (If I got two solid Guards then yeah it would probably make sense to take Dwight.  Except that I love Wade so i'd say screw it and take him anyway.)

The 7th spot on the other hand is wide open and I think an argument could be made for Melo, Danny Granger (who interestingly is a year older than Melo), Dirk Diggler, Al Jefferson (if the reports are good and you happen to value the "C" perched alongside his name), Kevin Durant (really skies the limit at this point right?) and of course Amare Stoudemire (who is just one season removed from a ridonkulous 1.157).

For now I see no reason to change our intial draft order of Melo (7), Dirk (8) and AJ (9).

But the Shaq trade leaves Amare as the sole big man scorer on the Suns and I'd expect to see them return to high scoring, highly succesful Nash-Amare pick n' rolls of yesteryear.  And if somehow a trade to Don Nelson's Warriors does materialize it could get really crazy.

Definitely seems a better upside selection to me at 10 than Granger or Bosh, and its not like Bosh or Granger aren't injury risks either.

I think the case can also be made for taking Kevin Durant over Granger and Bosh.  (And it goes like this:  Rookie season posted .851 on 20 ppg, as Soph posted .943 on 25 ppg... is there any way he doesn't A) score 30 per and B) post four digits next season?  Yeah I don't see how).

But for now I'm comfortable leaving those three as is after upping Amare to the 10 spot.

Two other movers this early on (in my most humble opinion), are Shaq and Zach Randolph... 

As you can see in my quick Memphis analysis here (http://kfba.net/cs/blogs/broham/archive/2009/07/02/are-there-enough-shots-in-memphis.aspx) i'm projecting Zach to hit somewhere between .900 and .920... (though if they sign Iverson all bets are off).   And given his general Malcontendedness I don't see that .920 projecting into an 18th overall ranking...   Instead I'm dropping him six spots to 24 and placing the ex-Clipper in a delicious Laker sandwich...

When we mock drafted the rankings, I figured Shaq would get his no matter where he went... but now that the trade to the Cavs is official I find myself questioning whether he can really post 4 digits along LeBron.    Note that the no supporting Cavalier posted a .900 last season.  The lone .800 was Zydrunas (a spot up shooter) and the lone .700 was Mo Williams (another spot up shooter).

So yes maybe Shaq only plays 20 per and maybe LeBron does feed him in the post like a starving bastard child... but maybe he only posts a .900... and maybe he's 37.... and maybe there's 20,000 minutes of NBA basketball on those knees.

Regardless I'm pushing him down below Devin Harris and Brandon Roy.  Both are young, heading into their prime, and the primary offensive weapons on their respective teams.  (In fact the VC trade could help push Harris' avg even futher north.)   And lets not forget both would be fun to watch and root for.

What say you Kentucky Fried peoples?

Top 25 as of June 29th

Broham's suggested new Top 25