As explained in the most recent rankings post, our new player valuations are based on the indefetigable work of 8 veteran Kentucky Fried GMs (myself included).   Drafting in a predetermined (snaked) order we would each select the best availalbe player (in our personal opinion) regardless of position...  the initial order was Schottsie, broham, Colonel, Doug, DLBass, Youngod, ZZRay, Ciwasko... (incidentally this order lasted exactly 5 rounds before we re-optimized for the various timezones represented by the volunteer rankers).

Eight days and 322 emails later we had our latest rankings.

Here's a closer look at what happened over the first 5 rounds:

Round 1

Round	NewRank	FirstName	LastName	NBATeamCity	NBATeamMascot	KFAvgYTD	Old Rank	Drafter
1	1	LeBron	James	Cleveland	Cavaliers	1.238	1	Schottsie
1	2	Dwyane	Wade	Miami	Heat	1.213	2	Broham
1	3	Dwight	Howard	Orlando	Magic	1.126	3	Colonel
1	4	Chris	Paul	New Orleans	Hornets	1.113	4	Doug
1	5	Kobe	Bryant	Los Angeles	Lakers	1.092	5	DLBass
1	6	Tim	Duncan	San Antonio	Spurs	1.078	6	YoungGod
1	7	Carmelo	Anthony	Denver	Nuggets	1.013	7	ZZRay
1	8	Dirk	Nowitzki	Dallas	Mavericks	1.026	8	Ciwasko
1	9	Al	Jefferson	Minnesota	Timberwolves	1.051	9	Ciwasko
1	10	Danny	Granger	Indiana	Pacers	1.010	10	ZZRay
1	11	Chris	Bosh	Toronto	Raptors	0.986	11	YoungGod
1	12	Tony	Parker	San Antonio	Spurs	0.979	17	DLBass
1	13	Kevin	Durant	Seattle	Supersonics	0.946	12	Doug
1	14	Amare	Stoudemire	Phoenix	Suns	0.922	15	Colonel
1	15	Deron	Williams	Utah	Jazz	0.946	14	Broham
1	16	Kevin	Garnett	Boston	Celtics	0.951	16	Schottsie

 

The first 11 players were selected in exactly the same order they had been previously ranked in, proving either the infallability of the Colonels judgement (and mine) or the subconcious weight default rankings place on unsuspecting drafters.

The first surprise was Tony Parker moving up to the 12th spot.   Its tough to argue against it since Parker did post a surprising .979 last season (higher than the next 4 selections), thereby leading many a team to a Kentucky Fried title matchup.  The contrarian would point out that Ginobili was out for the much of the year and that Parker might have trouble replicating these numbers unless he remains one of the focal points of the offense.   But there are no guarantees Ginobili will stay healthy next season (or that Timmy Duncan will for that matter) and Parker is the only one of the three entering his prime.   Also the general consensus is that there is a lack of quality guards at the top of the KF scoreboard (i.e. he has a higher differential over replacement value than Durant or Stoudemire).

Kevin Durant only moved up one spot but could have easily been selected 10th (and would have if it was up Doug at that point).

Schottsie originally drafted Shaq to complete the 1st round, but since he had 1st round keeper rights to Shaq in the Original Recipe (and the unofficial rule was to stay away from your own OR keepers), the Colonel swapped him with Schottsies next pick (17th overall), Kevin Garnett.

 

Round 2

Round	NewRank	FirstName	LastName	NBATeamCity	NBATeamMascot	KFAvgYTD	Old Rank	Drafter
2	17	Shaquille	O'Neal	Cleveland	Cavaliers	1.014	18	Schottsie
2	18	Brandon	Roy	Portland	Trail Blazers	0.922	21	Broham
2	19	Zach	Randolph	Memphis	Grizzlies	0.986	19	Colonel
2	20	Pau	Gasol	Los Angeles	Lakers	0.922	25	Doug
2	21	Carlos	Boozer	Utah	Jazz	0.941	22	DLBass
2	22	Devin	Harris	New Jersey	Nets	0.936	20	YoungGod
2	23	Charlie	Villanueva	Detroit	Pistons	0.986	28	ZZRay
2	24	Andris	Biedrins	Golden State	Warriors	0.932	24	Ciwasko
2	25	Emmanuel	Ginobili	San Antonio	Spurs	0.967	23	Ciwasko
2	26	Gilbert	Arenas	Washington	Wizards	0.903	37	ZZRay
2	27	Andrew	Bynum	Los Angeles	Lakers	0.907	26	YoungGod
2	28	Steve	Nash	Phoenix	Suns	0.884	27	DLBass
2	29	Vince	Carter	Orlando	Magic	0.881	29	Doug
2	30	Kevin	Martin	Sacramento	Kings	0.856	30	Colonel
2	31	David	Lee	New York	Knickerbockers	0.905	31	Broham
2	32	Kevin	Love	Minnesota	Timberwolves	0.898	35	Schottsie

The biggest mover in the 2nd round was Gilbert Arenas who jumped 11 spots from the preliminary rankings thanks to ZZRay... It's a high risk, high reward move.  Though its tough to argue that he's riskier than GInobili and recent reports from new coach Flip Saunders suggest that Arenas is in good shape and (quoting Flip) "ready to reclaim his spot amongst the Kentucky Fried big boys".

Nobody selected in the 2nd round dropped more than a couple of spots from their previous rankings (thanks to a couple of preliminary 3rd rounders sneaking in, and perhaps again, to the powerful weight awarded to default rankings, no matter how whimsical).

Round	NewRank	FirstName	LastName	NBATeamCity	NBATeamMascot	KFAvgYTD	Old Rank	Drafter
3	33	Marcus	Camby	Los Angeles	Clippers	0.866	32	Schottsie
3	34	Russell	Westbrook	Oklahoma City	Thunder	0.846	36	Broham
3	35	Antawn	Jamison	Washington	Wizards	0.915	33	Colonel
3	36	Paul	Millsap	Utah	Jazz	0.874	40	Doug
3	37	David	West	New Orleans	Hornets	0.860	42	DLBass
3	38	Michael	Beasley	Miami	Heat	0.876	47	YoungGod
3	39	Greg	Oden	Portland	Trail Blazers	0.851	39	ZZRay
3	40	Baron	Davis	Los Angeles	Clippers	0.833	34	Ciwasko
3	41	Elton	Brand	Philadelphia	76ers	0.830	43	Ciwasko
3	42	Paul	Pierce	Boston	Celtics	0.840	41	ZZRay
3	43	Joe	Johnson	Atlanta	Hawks	0.839	38	YoungGod
3	44	Anthony	Randolph	Golden State	Warriors	0.934	45	DLBass
3	45	Josh	Smith	Atlanta	Hawks	0.815	46	Doug
3	46	Stephen	Jackson	Golden State	Warriors	0.876	44	Colonel
3	47	Caron	Butler	Washington	Wizards	0.871	50	Broham
3	48	Rajon	Rondo	Boston	Celtics	0.841	49	Schottsie

The biggest climber in the 3rd round was Michael Beasly (who escalated 9 positions from his previous spot).   Tough to argue against the call... Beasly did post a beastly .876 in his rookie season and wasn't even that good (trust me i watched a bunch of MIA games and dude looked lost about half the time he was out there).  But coming into year 2 he now has a little more experience under his belt (at least i hope) and is playing for a team that desperatly needs some offensive help for Dwyane Wade and is determined not to bring in anyone that could sabotage their 2010 salary cap clearing efforts.  He's going to have every opportunity in the world to turn into a star next season.   Still a risky bet.

Best Pick: Baron Davis... Yes he is a malcontent, injury-prone whiner, playing for the worst franchise in sports, in the most distracting city in the country, for what is by all accounts a terrible coach that he does not get along with.  But there is considerable upside here.  Baron is easily motivated when he's playing on a winning team (and by winning i mean .500 with a shot at the playoffs, which the Clippers should be, and probably should have been last year).  And his averages, historically, suggest last season's production was an anomoly, not the norm:

http://www.kfba.net/kfba/WebModules/Players/Player.aspx?PlayerID=53

Season	Mins	KFP	KFAvg	1st Half	2nd Half	Playoffs	High	Low	Variance	APS
1999-00	1523	1076	0.707
2000-01	3192	2343	0.734
2001-02	3321	2750	0.828
2002-03	1889	1475	0.781	0.762	0.691	0.854	0.889	0.000	.132	18.99
2003-04	2684	2505	0.933	0.968	0.885	0.949	1.091	0.000	.057	31.49
2004-05	1581	1517	0.960	0.996	0.872	1.000	1.471	0.000	.260	18.28
2005-06	1950	1786	0.916	0.897	0.941	0.000	1.051	0.000	.145	26.38
2006-07	2187	2213	1.012	1.001	0.976	1.098	1.145	0.000	.141	30.94
2007-08	3101	2987	0.963	0.997	0.939	0.948	1.158	0.746	.016	34.58
2008-09	2220	1850	0.833	0.853	0.835	0.828	0.939	0.000	.098	25.51

Worst pick: Stephen Jackson.   Conversly, the numbers Stephen Jackson put up last season are completely out of or porportion with his mid .700 historical averages.  And yes he is a ball hog on a run and gun team playing 4 positions for a mad-scientist scoring-obsessed coach... but last year Monta Ellis and Corey Magette missed considerable parts of the season.  This year they've added Stephen Curry (out of whom much appears to be expected) and they still have a sea of D-league and 2nd round finds (Kelenna Azuibuike, Anthony Morrow) and developing 1st round talent (Anthony Randolph, Brandan Wright and Monta) waiting around to take his spot (and shots).

http://www.kfba.net/kfba/WebModules/Players/Player.aspx?PlayerID=259

Season	Mins	KFP	KFAvg	1st Half	2nd Half	Playoffs	High	Low	Variance	APS
2000-01	1660	1083	0.652
2001-02	228	144	0.632
2002-03	2254	1570	0.697	0.720	0.696	0.679	1.085	0.531	.015	25.88
2003-04	2940	2226	0.757	0.620	0.757	0.922	0.973	0.549	.020	26.19
2004-05	1806	1400	0.775	0.647	0.820	0.809	1.059	0.000	.176	15.62
2005-06	2870	2013	0.701	0.616	0.771	0.687	0.954	0.521	.015	24.97
2006-07	2444	1788	0.732	0.669	0.723	0.839	0.903	0.000	.037	24.47
2007-08	2767	2159	0.780	0.808	0.806	0.702	0.938	0.000	.039	26.83
2008-09	2313	2026	0.876	0.786	0.960	0.899	1.100	0.000	.056	29.68

 

4th Round

Round	NewRank	FirstName	LastName	NBATeamCity	NBATeamMascot	KFAvgYTD	Old Rank	Drafter
4	49	Blake	Griffin	Los Angeles	Clippers	0.000	71	Schottsie
4	50	Jameer	Nelson	Orlando	Magic	0.873	51	Broham
4	51	Troy	Murphy	Indiana	Pacers	0.887	52	Colonel
4	52	Brook	Lopez	New Jersey	Nets	0.819	54	Doug
4	53	Corey	Maggette	Golden State	Warriors	0.882	63	DLBass
4	54	Monta	Ellis	Golden State	Warriors	0.821	48	YoungGod
4	55	Mehmet	Okur	Utah	Jazz	0.847	53	ZZRay
4	56	Nate	Robinson	New York	Knickerbockers	0.906	55	Ciwasko
4	57	Zydrunas	Ilgauskas	Cleveland	Cavaliers	0.867	56	Ciwasko
4	58	Chauncey	Billups	Denver	Nuggets	0.821	58	ZZRay
4	59	JR	Smith	Denver	Nuggets	0.839	57	YoungGod
4	60	Leandrinho	Barbosa	Phoenix	Suns	0.857	59	DLBass
4	61	LaMarcus	Aldridge	Portland	Trail Blazers	0.807	61	Doug
4	62	Brad	Miller	Chicago	Bulls	0.821	62	Colonel
4	63	Andrew	Bogut	Milwaukee	Bucks	0.835	65	Broham
4	64	Al	Harrington	New York	Knickerbockers	0.851	66	Schottsie

Blake Griffin is clearly the biggest jumper of the mock draft through the first 4 rounds. Perhaps rightly so, as the Colonel and I tend to undervalue rookies.   Schottsie's thinking behind the pick is that if you have the 1st selection of the 4th round, you can't pass on this potential 2nd rounder keeper for next season.  And really what's the downside?  Low 800 production?   The kid is big and strong and is going to be a rebounding force in the National Basketball Association for years to come (i dare you to doubt me!). He demonstrated a high basketball IQ during the summer league and the Clippers, fully understanding that the future of their franchise rests on his shoulders, will be looking to fast track his development and will FORCE FEED him the ball like a starving bastard child.  If a knucklehead like Beasly can milk an .867 out of Miami, I can't imagine what a true talent like Griffin might be able to do in the LAC.

Best pick: Doug knows what he's doing and i think Brook Lopez is just a great selection here.  He's going to be a really good NBA player and as a rebounding, low post scoring big man, thats going to equate to some delicous KF averages.   For his rookie season he grabbed 8 boards/game, in just 30 minutes, and shot 79% from the line to go along with a healthy 53% from the field.  His average rose throughout the season to boot (just .757 in the 1st half) and with Vince Carter gone, the swampies are going to be desperate for scoring (capital D desperate!  Yi Yianlin?  Bobby Simmons?  Josh Boone?  You must be kidding).  I fully expect that offense to be a two man game played off of Devin Harris and Brook Lopez and if Lopez doesn't parlay that into a .900 I'll be midly surprised...

 

Round 5

Round	NewRank	FirstName	LastName	NBATeamCity	NBATeamMascot	KFAvgYTD	Old Rank	Drafter
5	65	TJ	Ford	Indiana	Pacers	0.838	67	Schottsie
5	66	Josh	Howard	Dallas	Mavericks	0.835	60	Broham
5	67	Drew	Gooden	Free Agent		0.857	68	Colonel
5	68	Derrick	Rose	Chicago	Bulls	0.769	73	Doug
5	69	Lamar	Odom	Los Angeles	Lakers	0.834	70	DLBass
5	70	Emeka	Okafor	Charlotte	Bobcats	0.811	76	YoungGod
5	71	Nene	Hilario	Denver	Nuggets	0.819	74	ZZRay
5	72	Chris	Kaman	Los Angeles	Clippers	0.802	64	Ciwasko
5	73	Ramon	Sessions	Milwaukee	Bucks	0.836	84	Ciwasko
5	74	Andre	Iguodala	Philadelphia	76ers	0.808	69	ZZRay
5	75	Michael	Redd	Milwaukee	Bucks	0.784	75	YoungGod
5	76	Ben	Gordon	Detroit	Pistons	0.796	82	DLBass
5	77	Al	Horford	Atlanta	Hawks	0.774	81	Doug
5	78	Allen	Iverson	Detroit	Pistons	0.748	79	Colonel
5	79	Jermaine	O'Neal	Miami	Heat	0.814	78	Broham
5	80	Jason	Terry	Dallas	Mavericks	0.812	77	Schottsie

 

The biggest riser in the 5th was Ramon Sessions (jumping 11 spots).... While his average certainly justifies being drafted above his roundmates and the possibility of playing in Mike D"Antoni's offense is certainly appetizing, i feel like there might be a little bit of fools gold to him.  I've been a fan, but now we're drafting a guy that wasn't able to beat Luke Ridnour out of the staring point guard job and that teams aren't exactly coming after guns ablaze, offering 50m, 5 yr contracts to, in the 5th round?  Ridnour and his .691 went completely undrafted (and he ended up placed a 291).   Not saying the averages are comparable, just that what we're enfatuated with here is possibility not certifiable talent.   To put it another way, Jason Kidd wasn't drafted until the 8th round.

Worst Pick: Drew Gooden.  Yes he's a reliable .800, but dude is playing backup to Dirk Nowitzki, Shawn Marion and Josh Howard... I think you have to have some reasonable level of confidence your 5th round selection is going to get minutes.  While we're ragging on the Colonel, jury's certainly still out on Iverson as well, who as of this moment has no team to call his own.

What say you?

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Posted 08-13-2009 7:11 PM by broham