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Reviewing the Rankings - Rounds 6, 7, 8 and 9

A quick recap of the rankings methodology:

"...new player valuations are based on the indefetigable work of 8 veteran Kentucky Fried GMs (myself included).   Drafting in a predetermined (snaked) order we would each select the best availalbe player (in our personal opinion) regardless of position...  "

http://kfba.net/cs/blogs/broham/archive/2009/08/13/new-rankings-reviewing-the-top-5-rounds.aspx

 

A new selection order was implemented effective the 81st pick and was designed to optimize the various waking hours for participants across various timezones.  It was as follows: ZZRay, DLBass, Doug, Colonel, BRoham, Schottsie, Ciwasko, Younggod.

 

A look through the trials and tribulations of rounds six through nine:

 

6th Round

Round NewRank FirstName LastName NBATeamCity NBATeamMascot KFAvgYTD Old Rank Drafter
6 81 Yao Ming Houston Rockets 1.015 13 ZZRay
6 82 Gerald Wallace Charlotte Bobcats 0.802 80 DLBass
6 83 JaVale McGee Washington Wizards 0.829 97 Doug
6 84 Rudy Gay Memphis Grizzlies 0.763 87 Colonel
6 85 Tyrus Thomas Chicago Bulls 0.789 88 Broham
6 86 Luis Scola Houston Rockets 0.802 90 Schottsie
6 87 Lou Williams Philadelphia 76ers 0.822 96 Ciwasko
6 88 Marc Gasol Memphis Grizzlies 0.760 91 YoungGod
6 89 Andre Miller Philadelphia 76ers 0.804 98 YoungGod
6 90 Marreese Speights Philadelphia 76ers 0.827 83 Ciwasko
6 91 OJ Mayo Memphis Grizzlies 0.712 94 Schottsie
6 92 Andray Blatche Washington Wizards 0.799 86 Broham
6 93 Spencer Hawes Sacramento Kings 0.770 92 Colonel
6 94 Tyreke Evans Sacramento Kings 0.000 Doug
6 95 Richard Hamilton Detroit Pistons 0.788 95 DLBass
6 96 Mo Williams Cleveland Cavaliers 0.762 93 ZZRay

With the 1st pick of the 6th round, Yao's calamitous fall down the rankings mountain finally came to an abrupt halt.   Technically I made this pick on behalf of ZZRay who was MIA for several hours after he fell into a deep sleep in the middle of the afternoon.  But it was the Colonel who opened the floodgates after stating he was comfortable with Yao being ranked at any point once the fifth round was over.  The theory is that as a 4th round keeper, he has intrisic value and that we didn't want anyone 'autodrafting' him earlier than that.  My guess is that he still goes in the 5th round in most actual drafts, but at least the selection will likely be made by a GM making a concious gamble, not as a default autopick.  

With the notable exceptions of Gerald Wallace, Andre Miller and Rip Hamilton, the 6th round was clearly all about upside potential (and risk).  Gone were not only the super stars, but the leading scorers and rebounders and most of the second fiddlers.  Left were known veteran players with solid output and young up and comers with tantalizing potential.  Clearly the up and comers won out.  

Best Pick: While I like a lot of these guys here the one that sticks out to me is Scola.  He's not at risk to lose minutes and I just don't see how he performs any worse than he did last season.  And with Yao and TMac both likely out for the year, the team will be looking for all the scoring help it can get.  Scola averaged just 12.7 ppg last year... If he raises that up to just 16-17 he could be riding a sporty .900 average all year.

Riskiest Picks:  While there is much risk to go round in this round, the two that stand out to me are Javale McGee and Mareese Speights.  Both performed well and earned coaching accolades in limited minutes last year.  Certainly either or both could turn out to be solid NBA and KFBA players next season, but it seems they could just as easily get stuck at the back of their team's rotations.   Washington's summer moves are clearly those of a team trying to win games, not one trying to develop sophomores.  With Antawn Jamison, Brendan Haywood and Andray Blatche playing ahead of him, McGee could be in the sub 10min/game category and at that point does it even matter if he's putting up decent averages?   Over in Philly Mareese Speights is playing behind both Elton Brand (the team's major free agent acquisition last summer) and Thaddeus Young (who continues to show better as a 4 than 3)... How does he get significant playing time unless one of them goes down?

Rookie watch:  I was midly surprised to see Tyreke Evans as the second rookie drafted.  (My money was on Curry, though i wouldn't take either this early).  I understand that Sacramento is potentially a great place for Tyreke to break in and that he displayed solid skills in Vegas over the summer, but it doesn't seem probable that he will be the starting point guard and being the combo guy off the bench on a team filled with capable wings (Kevin Martin, Francisco Garcia) might not be the easiest position from which to post numbers.   Again i understand the argument that if they give him the ball and say go make something happen (the heralded cavs offense!) he could be real solid but if he posts a .640 next year i don't think anyone will bat an eye either.   And 4th round rights really require an .800+ for the keeper aspect to come into play.  Just too high for me here.

 

7th round

7 97 Rashard Lewis Orlando Magic 0.778 89 ZZRay
7 98 Andrea Bargnani Toronto Raptors 0.765 100 DLBass
7 99 Andrei Kirilenko Utah Jazz 0.797 99 Doug
7 100 Marcin Gortat Orlando Magic 0.802 102 Colonel
7 101 Tracy McGrady Houston Rockets 0.800 72 Broham
7 102 Chris Andersen Denver Nuggets 0.799 103 Schottsie
7 103 Brandan Wright Golden State Warriors 0.836 85 Ciwasko
7 104 Hidayet Turkoglu Toronto Raptors 0.778 109 YoungGod
7 105 Jose Calderon Toronto Raptors 0.763 112 YoungGod
7 106 Rodney Stuckey Detroit Pistons 0.729 110 Ciwasko
7 107 Richard Jefferson San Antonio Spurs 0.780 101 Schottsie
7 108 Jason Thompson Sacramento Kings 0.756 114 Broham
7 109 Chris Wilcox New York Knickerbockers 0.803 104 Colonel
7 110 Jeff Green Seattle Supersonics 0.730 108 Doug
7 111 Luol Deng Chicago Bulls 0.709 187 DLBass
7 112 Jason Richardson Phoenix Suns 0.751 115 ZZRay

The 7th round offered up an intersting mix of "all-star" players that didn't perform as well as expected (Rashard Lewis, Joe Calderon) and up and comers without the gaudy averages (Rodney Stuckey, Jeff Green).

Best Picks: Ultimately i like a lot of picks in this round but I think Jose Calderon, Luol Deng and Jason Richardson offer the best value.  If you look at all three historically, they clearly underperformed last year. 

Jason Richardson was not only coming off of four consecutive .800+ seasons, he seems to have performed well once Phoenix ditched their coach and decided to return to the 7 second offense of yesteryear...

http://www.kfba.net/kfba/WebModules/Players/Player.aspx?PlayerID=145

SeasonMinsKFPKFAvg1st Half2nd HalfPlayoffsHighLowVarianceAPS
2001-02 2632 1864 0.708
2002-03 2698 2020 0.749 0.739 0.735 0.764 0.851 0.584 .006 26.24
2003-04 2937 2338 0.796 0.777 0.781 0.828 0.897 0.562 .008 28.22
2004-05 2724 2401 0.881 0.871 0.950 0.796 1.044 0.000 .086 29.19
2005-06 2842 2542 0.894 0.875 0.948 0.856 1.122 0.693 .013 31.91
2006-07 1648 1331 0.808 0.699 0.857 0.901 0.962 0.000 .159 17.33
2007-08 2986 2550 0.854 0.797 0.863 0.920 1.009 0.579 .015 30.29
2008-09 2371 1781 0.751 0.751 0.712 0.821 1.032 0.000 .048 25.15

 

After two consecutive 800+ seasons, Deng battled injuries all season and was a disappointment.   But with Gordon gone, the Bulls are going to be looking for additional scoring and Luol Deng - who seems like he's been around forever - is still just an unripe 24.

http://www.kfba.net/kfba/WebModules/Players/Player.aspx?PlayerID=807

SeasonTeamGmsFG%FT%3P%Mins/GPts/GAssts/GRbds/GStls/GBlks/GKFAvg
2004-05 CHI 61 43% 74% 26% 27.3 11.7 2.2 5.3 0.8 0.4 0.747
2005-06 CHI 78 46% 75% 27% 32.9 14.3 1.9 6.6 0.9 0.6 0.739
2006-07 CHI 82 52% 78% 14% 36.9 18.8 2.5 7.1 1.2 0.6 0.815
2007-08 CHI 63 48% 77% 36% 33.3 17.0 2.5 6.2 0.9 0.5 0.813
2008-09 CHI 49 45% 80% 40% 33.5 14.1 1.9 6.0 1.2 0.5 0.709

 

Calderon clocks in a tad older than Deng at 27... but point guards who shoot 50% from the floor and distribute almost 9 assists per game are absolute treasure and there is something very special about anyone who can make 98% of their free throws.    And if you don't believe in late blooming point guards i commend you to go look up Mr Steve Nash who posted a .796 (at career best at that point) at 27 years of age before becoming, you know, Steve Nash (http://www.kfba.net/kfba/WebModules/Players/Player.aspx?PlayerID=41)

SeasonTeamGmsFG%FT%3P%Mins/GPts/GAssts/GRbds/GStls/GBlks/GKFAvg
2005-06 TOR 64 42% 85% 16% 22.8 5.5 4.5 2.2 0.7 0.1 0.565
2006-07 TOR 77 52% 82% 33% 20.5 8.7 5.0 1.7 0.8 0.1 0.798
2007-08 TOR 82 52% 91% 43% 29.8 11.2 8.3 2.9 1.1 0.1 0.790
2008-09 TOR 68 50% 98% 41% 33.8 12.8 8.9 2.9 1.1 0.1 0.763

Worst picks:  It seems to me Martin Gortat and Hedo Turkoglu's post season performances earned them not only inflated contracts but a bump in the Kentucky Fried rankings.  I hope they each bought Dwight Howard a rolex.

Most intriquing pick:  Jeff Green.   Overall it seems to me the guys in OKC really know what they're doing, especially when it comes to the NBA draft.  I'm feeling confident Jeff Green (already a pretty good player) is going to be a solid NBA starter at the very least, for the next decade or so.   While I love the player i can't be sure if it will translate into a starting caliber KF average, but sometimes good players end up with good averages .  He could have a Richard Jefferson type KF career.

 

8th Round

Round NewRank FirstName LastName NBATeamCity NBATeamMascot KFAvgYTD Old Rank Drafter
8 113 Jason Kidd Dallas Mavericks 0.749 117 ZZRay
8 114 Joakim Noah Chicago Bulls 0.742 113 DLBass
8 115 Roy Hibbert Indiana Pacers 0.902 225 Doug
8 116 Craig Smith Minnesota Timberwolves 0.814 188 Colonel
8 117 Brandon Bass Dallas Mavericks 0.765 116 Broham
8 118 Stephen Curry Golden State Warriors 0.000 Schottsie
8 119 Ron Artest Los Angeles Lakers 0.785 107 Ciwasko
8 120 DJ Augustin Charlotte Bobcats 0.682 120 YoungGod
8 121 Shawn Marion Dallas Mavericks 0.728 131 YoungGod
8 122 Mike Dunleavy Indiana Pacers 0.833 106 Ciwasko
8 123 Raymond Felton Charlotte Bobcats 0.715 121 Schottsie
8 124 Hakim Warrick Memphis Grizzlies 0.759 119 Broham
8 125 Eric Gordon Los Angeles Clippers 0.675 130 Colonel
8 126 Jamal Crawford Atlanta Hawks 0.747 118 Doug
8 127 Andres Nocioni Sacramento Kings 0.720 156 DLBass
8 128 Will Bynum Detroit Pistons 0.870 111 ZZRay

Best Pick:  Its an absolute crime Jason Kidd fell this far and when you look at this round in isolation he stands out like Paris Hilton at a Sausage eating convention.  Kidd is not only guaranteed a starting position, he's guaranteed to be a leader on that team, given the ball and asked to make plays.  Last year's .749 is 100 points less than any other average he has put in a decade.   And yes you could attribute that to his overall ancientness (age 36) and claim we are simply witnessing a precipitous end of career drop-off, but the stats (and Dallas' record) don't support that.    What they do support is an offense that often ran through Nowitzki last year.  But if you look at this offseason, when they signed Shawn Marion (who you might know excels in a certain type of offense) as well Drew Gooden and Tim Thomas, it seems to me the theme was 'running' big men who can make outside shots.   Take from that what you want.  My money is on one more .800+ season from Kidd and plenty of good karma for whoever drafts the old man.

Rookie Watch: Stephen Curry becomes the 3rd rookie selected from this draft class.  Three rookies through eight rounds is atypical in the KFBA and i don't expect to see that replicated in real drafts where GMs are often suckered by these sexy picks.   I don't know what to make of Curry at this point.  He clearly has a lot of fans but he shot like crap in the summer league.  Golden State is a great place to put up numbers, but you need the minutes to put up those numbers - just ask Al Harrington or anyone else thats fallen out of favor with Don Nelson - and there's just so much competion at shooting guard on that team, there's pretty much no room for suckage.

Upside potential:  You can't read too much into last season's KF average.  I'd rate the two sophomore guards with .680 averages considerably higher than the 26 year old journey man with the fancy .870.     Eric Gordon and DJ Augustine are going to be impact NBA players for a decade.  They might even make an all-star game or two.  Will Bynum could be out of the NBA in 12 months.

 

9th Round

Round NewRank FirstName LastName NBATeamCity NBATeamMascot KFAvgYTD Old Rank Drafter
9 129 John Salmons Chicago Bulls 0.732 122 ZZRay
9 130 Carl Landry Houston Rockets 0.750 193 DLBass
9 131 Thaddeus Young Philadelphia 76ers 0.683 135 Doug
9 132 James Harden Oklahoma City Thunder 0.000 Colonel
9 133 Randy Foye Washington Wizards 0.714 134 Broham
9 134 Leon Powe Free Agent 0.833 105 Schottsie
9 135 Wilson Chandler New York Knickerbockers 0.721 127 Ciwasko
9 136 Aaron Brooks Houston Rockets 0.686 163 YoungGod
9 137 Trevor Ariza Los Angeles Lakers 0.709 157 YoungGod
9 138 Mike Bibby Atlanta Hawks 0.724 125 Ciwasko
9 139 Rasheed Wallace Boston Celtics 0.730 146 Schottsie
9 140 Antonio McDyess San Antonio Spurs 0.749 160 Broham
9 141 Al Thornton Los Angeles Clippers 0.682 129 Colonel
9 142 Jonny Flynn Minnesota Timberwolves 0.000 Doug
9 143 Kelenna Azubuike Golden State Warriors 0.709 138 DLBass
9 144 Boris Diaw Charlotte Bobcats 0.718 126 ZZRay

 

Best Pick: I've been an Aaron Brooks fan since he played in the 1st vegas summer league two years ago (whence he posted a .941).  Last season i thought he looked great in the playoffs... Though his playoff numbers only indicate an average in line with the season, i think this upcoming season is going to be the opportunity of his life.  He'll be the starting point guard for a team with absolutely no scoring options (even Von Wafer's gone, after signing with Olympiakos). If he can shoot in the mid 40s and make some open threes he's going to get a ton (TON!) of shots.  We'll see.  I'll be rooting for him.

Rookie Watch:  Two more rookies got picked up in this round and I'm a big fan of both.   James Harden carries the blessing of OKC's all knowing brass and as such, I expect nothing less than another tremendous talent.   Will it translate into average?  That's always the gamble.  But a mid .700 average with solid minutes will make him a useful player this year.  Sprinkle in a handful of opposing coaching accolades and he'll have solid 7th round keeper value, perhaps even enough to be a mid-season commodity on the trade front.  Over in Minnessotta they've jettisoned Randy Foye and Sebastian Telfair and a Ricky Rubio appearance this season is looking less likely by the day.  They are going to hand Johnny Flynn the starting point reigns and will let him sink or swim.  To be fair, Flynn has a solid two-year college career and performed admirably over the summer.  It will probably be a trying season, but really how much better does he have to be to be considered an upgrade over telfair?

The summer league numbers for all five rookies ranked so far:

PLAYER NAME KF Avg MPG PTS RPG APG SPG BPG FG% P Avg
Tyreke Evans 1.020 30.2 19.2 6.2 4.2 1 0.2 40% 0.384
Blake Griffin 1.000 34.6 19.2 10.8 3.2 1 0.4 50% 0.445
Jonny Flynn 0.921 27.8 15 2.4 7.4 0.8 0 48% 0.381
Stephen Curry 0.863 33.6 17.4 4.6 4.2 2.4 0.4 33% 0.345
James Harden 0.786 28 14.5 3 3.3 1.2 0 48% 0.268

P Avg (pheripherals avg.) is the KF Avg with points excluded.  While we have not studied this in depth, I am confident that when we do, we will find points to be the variable with the most variance in the KF equation by a significant margin.  They are, of all the KF figures, by far the most depedent on role, team offense, pecking order and coaching whims.   I don't see Tyreke evans scoring 20 ppg his rookie year for example, but if he can grab board every five minutes he's on the floor and dish an assist every seven and a half, he's going to be in pretty good shape.

What say you?

 


Posted 08-13-2009 8:49 PM by broham

Comments

younggod wrote re: Reviewing the Rankings - Rounds 6, 7, 8 and 9
on 08-14-2009 3:15 PM

I'm a big fan of scola but i fear he might play 40 mpg so to put up decent KF Avg he'd have to put up 20-10 and i don't think he can.

In the end i like some round 7 guys (Deng, Calderon, Stuckey Richardson) that guys we picked in round 6 but that's hindsight. I also think Bynum (will) could hurt a lot of people considering he's a journeyman at this stage.