Welcome to the fourth and final installment of our August 2009 Rankings reivew.

"Player valuations are based on the indefatigable work of 8 veteran Kentucky Fried GMs (myself included).   Drafting in a predetermined (snaked) order we would each select the best availalbe player (in our personal opinion) regardless of position... the draft order was: ZZRay, DLBass, Doug, Colonel, BRoham, Schottsie, Ciwasko, Younggod....." "

For more information check http://kfba.net/cs/blogs/broham/archive/2009/08/13/new-rankings-reviewing-the-top-5-rounds.aspx

Running out of steam after a week of non-stop e-mails flooding into our inbox we nevertheless persevered through 240 picks (15 rounds) to equip GMs worldwide with some semi-reasonable selection pools to peruse when their leagues draft over the next two months.

The available player pool in the 13th, 14th and 15th rounds was as bad as would be expected 200 picks into an NBA league that usually features about 240 rotation guys.

This was mostly about fishing for prospects - of few of which might miracurously turn into homeruns, most of which would end up making little KF impact.  Sprinkled in were some mid .600 heavy minute stalwarts that can be counted on to prop up the back end of a rotation when your starters are down and out...

Since these late rounds are highly subjective, getting eight opinions (instead of one or two) was extremely valuable and I'd like to take a quick second to thank the GMs that graciously participated.

Because of this very high degree of subjectivity though, and in spite of the fact that i mocked many of their picks through the first 12 rounds, i decided to go back to well and ask these GMs for their reasoning behind giving their particular selections a coveted top 240 grand prixe position. 

Here's what they had to say...

ZZRay

"I love the French...... 

Now let me the F#$@ alone and let me sleep." 

-ZZRay

My take:  David Thorpe twittered various random observations throughout the summer league.

He clearly walked away impressed with Beaubois:   "Beaubois see's things." (Hopefully not dead people).

"Beaubois has been the best pure pg I've seen this summer."

"Beaubois reminds people of Tony Parker. He just airballed a 10 foot jumper. Even so, I'm not ready to say that yet. But he's lightning."

"Beaubois is both quick and crafty."

Had mixed reviews on Robin's Lopez:  "Robin Lopez can be an excellent player. Does he want to be?"

"Lopez, like most young bigs, has no plan in the post when he has the ball."

"I'd be excited about the 15 and 14 Lopez has, but Nathan Jawai is not as good as most centers in the pac-10."

And took only cursory note of Mike Taylor: "Mike Taylor is incredibly quick."

(While we're at it Thorpe did offer some interesting notes on the last two picks of the 12th round: DeMar Derozan (drafted by ZZ Ray) - "Demar DeRozan has yet to do anything. Barely touched the ball.", "DeRozan with the lob dunk!", "MM:Demar Derozan really comes off the curl with speed, balance and elevation-very controlled.", "Will come off a decades worth of pindowns", "Derozan is going to have lots of unproductive mins. No worries. He's going to be fine."  - and George Hill (Selected by DLBass) - "George Hill just had a monster dunk, but it was the least impressive play of the sequence. He set up the entire set by talking to his guys.", "George Hill was the 2nd worst player of all the first rounders last summer. He's fantastic now. Credit him, and his organization.".)

Summer league numbers for all five players:

Sean Williams remains an intriquing talent although he regressed in every possible way last season:

NBA Stats

Still probably a decent gamble this late in the draft.

DLBass

"Gerald Henderson - Projecting rookies is always a crap-shoot. But Henderson is headed to a team starved for scoring, and lacking an established shooting guard. When picking rookies, I tend to favor those who have a chance to play 20+ minutes a game, an opportunity Henderson will have in Charlotte.  Besides, even with Larry Brown as the coach, someone on the Bobcats has to be KFBA relevant (and I'm betting that it will not be Tyson Chandler).

Kosta Koufos - Kosta put up a respectible .785 in his rookie year, albeit in limited minutes. There was even an impressive three-week stretch of at least 31 minutes and a .915 average. If he is able to get consistent minutes with the Jazz or another team this year, he could be an intriguing prospect. 

Josh Boone - Boone has shown flashes in his three years, but has never been worthy of starting status in the KFBA. I am betting that the subtraction of Ryan Anderson will ensure that Boone gets more consistent minutes and the subtraction of Vince Carter will ensure that he (along with the entire Nets squad) gets a few additional shots.

Channing Frye - Frye teased all KFBA GM's in 2005-06, putting up an eye-popping .848 as a rookie. As with any tease, we haven't even sniffed the goods since. But, Frye is moving to a new team, where he has a chance for a fresh start. Some GM might be pleasantly surprised if he finally starts living up to that rookie potential. In the 14th round, someone with an .848 upside is all more than you can ask for.

BJ Mullens - Quality centers are difficult to come by in KFBA. Mullens has, by far, the most KFBA potential of any center in this draft class and, in my expert opinion, is worthy a late round pick. Mullens could be your C1 in a couple years, while Thabeet will be the next DeSagana Diop.

Janero Pargo - Unlike most 15th rounders, this pick is based on value, not potential. Pargo is intriguing because of his potential to step in and be a 3rd/4th guard on most KFBA rosters this year. Pargo will be the 4th guard in the Bulls rotation and should see 15-20 minutes a game. His KFaverages in his last stint in Chicago (.737-.765) suggest that he may be more valuable than guards such as Rip Hamilton, Raymond Felton or Jason Richardson, who are likely to be taken in the mid-rounds. "

-DLBass

My take: Tough to argue with any of DLBass' picks.  I agree that Pargo could be a nice value selection, but his best case scenario is still just .750 and a starting spot on an NBA squad (as bestowed on Rip, Felton and Richardson) is unlikely.

Frye's not just getting another chance on a new team, he's getting another chance on a run & gun team that has produced many a KF impact player.   Recall that the Knicks were entirely disfunctional under Isaiah Thomas, and that the Blazers had a slew of solid big men competing for minutes. 

Boone certainly has the rebounding rate for a decent KF Average (12.6 boards per 48 last season), but his attrocious 38% shooting from the free throw line makes his name a difficult one to call upon for an NBA coach.

Doug

"Tayshaun Prince was, by leaps and bounds, the best basketball player left.  Someday his skills will translate into numbers, right?  Note that I likely wouldn't take him in an actual draft because I'm taking upside in the latter rounds, but any 200-plus player "ranking" should include him.

Yeah, I took Jason Smith because I'm a total Sixers homer, but I also heard some draftnik say if he were available for the 2009 draft, he would have gone in the lottery.  So what the hell? 

Tererence Williams was a 2009 lottery pick, and, in my view, all lotto rookies should all be off the board by the end of the 13th.  Except for Thabeet.  Because he's a puss.

I picked Dragic because he put up sneaky good numbers for a somewhat maligned rookie, and I took Belinelli because I like his upside, especially in Toronto, where he might compete for a starting spot."

-Doug

My take:   Its always the averages that attract GMs (like flies to maneur) but minutes are the other half of the equation - or at least a minimum number of minutes.   If you had taken every player in the KFBA last season and awarded him a starting slot and then taken the average weekly score (also known as APS or Average Points per Start), Tayshaun Prince would have ranked 130th at 23.70.  So let me restate this - Tayshaun Prince was the 130th best peforming player last season by the only stat that ultimately counts (KF Avg * (Min 36, Weekly Min Played).  So I think 206 is a pretty good spot to pick him up and there's an outside chance that he sees a slight uptick in weekly average with Sheed, Dyes and Billups now gone.

Top 10 players by APS:

Full 2009 APS list available here: http://kfba.net/cs/forums/p/8878/28285.aspx#28285

Colonel

 "JJ Barea…  Finally found a role in the NBA and got big minutes doing it…  Should have a similar season this year as the spark plug off the bench…  Potential keeper value if Dallas undergoes massive change in the coming years and allows JJ more scoring opportunities…

Eddy Curry…  Did you hear that Eddy Curry lost fifty pounds?  And his heart (which was two sizes too small) is now huge?!  I hear he’s going to be the main man for the Knicks this year, and that Santa Claus is real…  Seriously though, Eddy has been working out – and he’s doing what the Knicks tell him to do…  He’ll get some burn this year – even if it’s just a ruse by the Knicks to shop him around…

Jamaal Tinsley…  Back in the League?  Deserves a chance from NBA & KFBA GMs…

Primoz Brezec…  Sweet shooting big man used to be good…  Now he’s back on a veteran minimum contract for a team (Philly) that desperately needs what he’s got…

Renaldo Balkman…  Has always delivered KF goodness, but never gets the respect…  Can he turn his athleticism into offensive talent?  If he does, he’ll get minutes on a high scoring Denver squad…

Darren Collision…  He is the reason Jrue Holiday had such bad numbers in college… He played four years at ucla and made many final fours.  Up tempo player on a up tempo team…"

-Colonel

My take: Far as I know nobody's signed up for the Jamaal Tinsley comeback as of yet.   Of course, news that an NBA team did commit to giving him a chance would likely propel his draft stock above the 14th round.  

Primoz Brezec might be a sweet shooting big man but his lifetime KF Average stands at a less than stellar .685:

http://kfba.net/kfba/WebModules/Players/Player.aspx?PlayerID=377

As for the mighty Darren Collison, his college numbers don't scream KF Avg, but at least he had some decent shooting %s.

 From Thorpe Twiter feed: "Collison is really nice. I see why Holiday played the 2"

Broham

"Tyson Chandler has had a dissappointing career, plays on a bum toe and missed half of NOK's regular season last year but... He's still one of just 30 starting centers in the NBA and the two seasons previous to last year he posted a .733 and .754 respectively thanks to double digit rebounding per game numbers.

At the time of this selection I thought Amir Johson had a shot at becoming Milwaukee's starting PF.  Did not know he would be Chris Bosh's towel boy.  Still the much overhyped prospect had himself an .807 year before last season (in almost as many minutes) and is just 22 years old.

What to make of Ike Diogu?  He's had stellar averages his entire KF career (.792, .861, .952, .906) but NBA coaches have conspired to reward him with ever decreasing minutes (996, 729, 276, 202).   Still I think the expectation in NOK will be that as David West's back-up he will fill the exact same post-up big man role while he's on the floor.  Another high average, low minute season seems to be in the offing, though hopefully he can get more than 10 minutes per game.

O'Bryant had himself a disappointing summer league, but is still an upside play at just 23 years of age:

DJ White sported an .857 his rookie season (in just 7 games) and carries the blessing of the master drafters of OKC.   His summer league went OK, but the limited minutes per game are probably a sign of how far down the rotation management sees his role in the upcoming season:

Brian Cook's already on his 3rd team and hardly saw the floor after heading to Houston (2.4 mpg) where he might not have meshed well with the tough man front court that is now the team's signature.  Still someone will have to score/shoot in Houston and Cook has a .716 lifetime average.  Seems like a decent gamble this late."

-Broham

My take: Um... ditto.

Schottsie

"Courtney Lee, like everyone on NJN this year, has a "sky is the limit" / "eat what you kill" opportunity in their "can anyone besides Harris and Lopez score?" system.
 
Sean May sucks but there are worse players to pick up at this point than ones who have been good, albeit in short stretches, previously.
 
Ricky Rubio would have been selected way before this if i hadn't been in a drunken stupor the last few rounds and realized he was still on the board.
 
Jason Maxiell is at least a decent player in real life - with a major shakeup in DET theres always the chance something strange and good happens for those who are left behind.
 
Brendan Haywood seems like the most boring pick ever until week 10 when your star C1 does down and you realize that your C2 and C3 are from African and Eastern European countries you never heard of and have a combined 30min PT on the year - at that point he doesn't look so bad.  Its nice to have a reliable .700-.750 for a week in an emergency.
 
Wayne Ellington will be a good real life NBA player.  He might not have a 50% chance of being an average KFBA player, but he does have a 10% chance of being great in both and being looked at as a draft steal for years to come."

-Schottsie

My take: Rubio is a great value in the 14th round and likely won't last that long in real drafts.  Even if he doesn't play (or maybe especially if he doesn't) you will get decent keeper trade-in value for Rubio (12).  On the flip side its important to note this move kills a roster spot.  Its like owning a 16th rounder that never matures.

Haywood was hurt all of last season and mostly forgotten but the promise of NBA starter minutes at the Center slot should indeed make him an attractive pickup in the later rounds, whence his ilk become increasingly rare.  Remember the mock did not take position into account, but every team will try to walk away from the actual draft with at least three centers.

Ciwasko

"Generally speaking, I tried to pick conservatively per the colonel's instructions.  I probably wouldn't draft Collison or Hughes myself unless I desparately needed a player with minutes in that position.

Humphries - He's a strong rebounder, built for the KFBA scoring system.  Posted .800+ in each of the past two years in limited minutes.  He's been one of your (and my) sleepers for a long time.  Still waiting for him to wake up, but worth the gamble.

Darko - A wise KF oracle (the Broham) once said that he couldn't imagine how Darko would fail to post .800+ in the 2006(?) season.  Seriously though, centers are valuable - even ones who post .700.  He's still young, and if he's going to succeed anywhere, it will be in D'Antoni's system.

Collison - He was a conservative pick.  He's going to get decent minutes.  He's only 28.  It was only a year ago that he posted a .784.  And mrobison traded Joe Johnson for Collison not too long ago (and vehemently defended his decision to do so).  In short, he's a decent roster filler who could serve as an F4 with pretty certain minutes.

Larry Hughes - Similar to Collison, he's going to get minutes, isn't completely past his prime, and is capable of big KF numbers.  Remember when he was a 2nd round pick in Washington?

Martell Webster - So talented, but nothing to show for it yet.  He's only 22.  If he gets traded from Portland, I can see him exploding.  Maybe I'm a dreamer.  Anyway, worth the gamble.

Gerald Green - Also so talented, but with decent KF numbers in limited minutes.  The real problem with him is his attitude and failure to develop his game.  Dallas is probably his last shot.  Again worth the gamble."

-Ciwasko

My take: The Colonel is a burly, temperamental, hermit of man with strong fascist tendendicies who consistently tried to stomp out the free market spirit of our ranking system with obnoxious comments like "Since this is a mock draft to be used as the default rankings – do not reach for players…  Take the player that MUST be taken…  Let the users reach for potential on their own…"; "Pick the @$$hole…  I have Randolph too in another league and probably won’t pick him here…  Let’s see where he goes…" ; "Yeah, don’t take guys you have as keepers…"; "McGrady might not play next year…  Not sure if he’s the pick here…  Though at some point, he & Yao have value as keepers for the following year… Can you repick and we’ll let McGrady keep sliding a bit further?"; "And since the late rounds are hard to predict, we should lay out the potential picks in an order that makes sense...  Actual KFAvg past performance for veteran players...  Actual NBA draft ordering for new players..." and "Remember – no outside monies, liquors, or misc favors may be included in KFBA trade proposals…", and of course much huffing and puffing about not much of anything as is his usual want.     And he calls this a game!  More like an ode to central planning.

As for Ciwasko's picks I agree that if Darko is to ever post that mythical .800 I thought he had in him it will be for D'Antoni.  He is, incredibly, still just 24 years of age.  But at the same time, this is his 4th team and if he doesn't break through now, its just not going to happen.

Humphries remains a perennial super sleeper (whom I believe has been selected in the 11th round of the OR draft four years running).   As far as I'm concerned he will stay there as long as he continues to post the juicy averages in limited minutes... but I'm afraid its going to be tough for him get rotation level playing time on a team that lists Dirk, Shawn Marrion, Josh Howard, Drew Gooden and Tim Thomas on its roster.   Might be another year at the end of the bench for our favorite 6'8" KF player.

Gerald Green and Martell Webster are quintesential Ciwasko picks.   Athletic wings who as uber talents have been much hyped for their potential but have not yet delivered.  Two summers ago he selected Marvin Williams and Danny Granger with the 1st two picks of the 9th round.  Today Granger is the best keeper in the OR and Williams is projected as an 11th rounder.   Net-net, I'd say he go a good return for his investment.

And remember, in the immortal words of the Colonel:

"We’re drafting certainty – for our default draft list!  If someone let their team be auto-drafted, they should expect mediocracy!" 

YoungGod

"Varejao provides depth at forward and has a decent chance to surpass .700 - all you can ask for in the 13th round.

JRue - This late i usually go for young guys with potential.  In an ideal world JRue could become the go-to scorer in Philly's second unit; he's supposed to be a selfish ballhog which bodes well for his kfba average (hello zach randolph!)

Austin Daye - He's looked surprisingly good in summer league and could post a .750 backing up Charlie and Tayshaun.

Julian Wright - Here's where desperation sets in; maybe, just maybe he has a breakout season ala Boris Diaw in him.

Ersan Ilyasova - When i picked him i thought Amir would pick up minutes at PF for Milwaukee.  Now that he's gone Ersan should actually be the first big off the bench. Definetely worth a 14th round pick and will probably start for some "all keeper" teams by the end of the year.

Donte Green - Sacramento's team is worse than ever so anybody with a semblance of talent should get minutes. Donte probably won't do much with them but he'll look good waving a towel at the end of the bench. "

-YoungGod

My take: Donte Green shot a miserable 29% from the field over the course of five games at the Vegas summer league and David Thorpe actually accused him of being the player that had most regressed from last year over his Twitter feed.

Two years removed from a .726, 941 minute rookie season, Ilyasova returns after a brief stint with FC Barcelona.   The giant Turk is still just 22 years old.