With the first saturday in September arrives one of my most highly anticipated events of the year:  The Original Recipe draft.  Usually starting around noon and distintegrating by late evening (with the last few picks usually left for another day), the OR draft has now been held live over Labor Day weekend for a decade.  

The stakes are high, and they are more than just pride.   Though it must be said that no fantasy league title in any sport means as much to me as the coveted OR Championship, regardless of the fact that there are winnings to be had    It's the league that not only spawned the Association, but also helped me connect with the joys of fantasy baskeball.

From its humble beginnings at the mostly inept fantasy hands of the Colonel's buddies, the league has evolved over the years into a tintillating mix of highly competive (and active) players from all over the world alongside some leftover wackos and deadbeats.  Not every team behaves on a purely rational basis.  Some GMs won't deal to maximize picks in keeper rounds or get value for first round talent even when they clearly should!  

The quirks surrounding this rare mix of GMs are a key component of the league's unique personality.  Once San Juan gets a hold of Tim Duncan, not else gets to field him.  No matter what.   Once the Colonel grows attached to his players, he's sticking with them come what may. 

A look at some of these GMs and their strategies for the 2009-2010 season...

Schottsie's all LeBron all the time Strategy

Dating back to King Jame's first season when the NY Schottsies shocked the room by selecting the rookie with 16th and final pick of the 1st round, the team vowed to field LeBron every year for the rest of his storied career.  To date they've kept good on Schottsie's word.   By 2005, going into LeBron's sophomore campaign, the Schottsies needed the 8th overall pick to select him and by 2006 the were forced to obtain, through hook or crook, the very 1st pick of the draft.   For four straight seasons the LeBron strategy has required NY to decimate the team's draft board in order to place themselves in the coveted pole position required to draft James.   Though we were all skeptical Schottsie's strategy could work, last season it almost won him all the marbles.   New York combined LeBron's league leading 1.238 average with an improbable supporting cast to reach the championship game - where they lost by a mere 7 points.  

Schottsie made up for his distressed draft board with some deft picks. 

Having given up NY's 2nd rounder in his ever lasting quest for LeBron, Schottsie did not take his next player until the 8th pick of the 3rd round!   With it however, he took a calculated chance on Shaq.   Coming off a 61 game, career worst .921 season Shaq was on a clear downward trend, playing out the tail of his career and a good bet to continue his decline.   Instead he was rejuvinated by PHO magical pixie dust and he suited up for 75 games and posted a robust 1.014 on the season.

In the middle of the 4th round (with his 3rd overall selection) Schottsie again went high risk/high reward with a talented but troubled youngster, Mr. Michael Beasley.   He was then able to parlay Beasley (.867), whose 2nd round rights were keeper valued this year (until about a week ago), into a package of prospects that netted Kevin Durant (.946) for the stretch run.  

And the Schottsie's weren't done yet.  They selected Stephen Jackson, who posted a career high .876, in the 5th round, and had the forsite to draft Drew Gooden (.857) in the 8th and Nate Robison (.906) in the 9th.

So encouraged was Schottsie by last year's results that he's taking another stab at his LeBron strategy this season.   Leveraging a handful of keepers and his 2nd, 3rd, 4th and 5th round picks, the Schottsies have acquired the 1st overall selection (for LeBron) and the 16th (to keep Shaq).   They intend to retain the rights to Drew Gooden (in the 6th round) and Jarret Jack (14h).   The rest of the rotation will be made up by the 87th, 99th, 107th, 138th and 139th picks.

Seems like an unlikely plan to me, but Schottsie is roaring with confidence and has already proved us all wrong once. 

The Ciwasko

The basic tenets of the Ciwasko strategy (though he has never confessed them to me personally) go something like this:

1) First rounder talent matters above all else. 

2) You need four of five of them to win a title.

3) The two ways to acquire 1st round talent are to A) Draft one and B) trade one for quality keepers mid-season

4) It is hard to draft great keepers in the mid rounds (3rd to the 7th) for two reasons A) They must perform spectacularly to be considered good grabs two rounds above where they are selected (1st through 5th), and B) Keeper differentials peak throughout these rounds making it much harder to get projectable players from the available talent pool (relative to draft position) than in the later rounds

5) You optimize the draft by moving up at the top as much as possible, forfeighting mid-round picks for keepers and accumulating selections in the late rounds.

6) And perhaps his most important: Points are disproportionately weighted into the KF Avg and as such you should favor gunners, shooters and scoring leaders whenever possilbe.  Punks with bad attidues that ruin team chemistry are just bonus.   (What are the chances JR Smith doesn't end up on this team???)

Though they remain title-less, the Ciwasko strategy has worked out well for his Crispus Attucks Tigers for three seasons: consecutive 13-3 regular season records followed by a 10-6, resulting in a championship defeat and two first round playoff exits respectively.  It has only been felled by the injury gods and his inability to resist the temptation of drafting bad seeds.

In '06 (arguably their best season) the Attucks Tigers managed to acquire THREE first round selections.  With the 9th pick they took Melo, with the 10th Iverson and with the 12th Gilbert Arenas.   They did not pick again until the 4th round (where they took Sheed).   That year they lost the title thanks to a stacked Provo Jomegamen team (proly one of the best in OR history) and the final game implosions of Sheed (.597) and Iverson (.798).   Yep.

In '07 the Attucks Tigers got a hold of two first rounders (they took Melo, again, with the 7th pick and JO with the 8th), a mid-second rounder (Magette) and the 1st pick of the 3rd (Joe Johnson).  They also took some solid keeper gambles in the later rounds on two players heading into their "breakout" 3rd season - Marvin Williams in the 8th and Danny Granger in the 9th. One turned to coal and on turned to gold.   The team averaged 211 ppg, but was overcome in the 1st round when both JO and Chris Bosh (acquired in exchange for the keeper rights to josh smith) both succumbed to injury.   Radoslav Nesterovic, needless to say, was not able to pick up the slack.

In '08 the Attucks Tigers again paired two first rounders (Al Jefferson with the 9th pick and Gilbert Arenas with the 13th) with a slew of star keepers (Butler in the 3rd, Gay in the 4th and Danny Granger in the 7th).  Alas Arenas and Al Jefferson both missed almost the entire season and the team was lucky to stumble to a 10-6 record in a weak conference.

But fret not Oscar Robertson fans for Ciwasko is back for another shot this season.   With 5th round rights to Danny Granger, the 10th overall ranked player in the association and hands down the best keeper in the OR, the Attucks Tigers were arguably the best positioned team heading into the draft.   To that Mr. Ciwasko has already added the 10th and 13th overall picks and some solid upside 8th round keepers - Anthony Randolp and Jeff Green.

The Champ

Yes he was there at the beginning.  Only the Colonel and Schottsie have played as many seasons.   Still the scoreboard reads Doug "three" and everyone else "one" or "zero".  The 15 other teams have combined for "seven".  At this point we should just admit that whether his success is the product of luck or talent (my guess is a lot of both) he's got what it takes to bring home Kentucky Fried gold.

The Trinidad All-Star GM actually outlined his basic principles for winning four years ago here.

As a quick recap they were:

1) Don't play favorites

2) Healthy Players make Happy Owners

3) Beware of Rookies

4) Drafting your 2nd center is not a high priority

5) Take the late rounds seriously

6) Your general manager duties don't end with the draft

I'll let you read the high minded drivel he dished on these six principles in his own words, but I have three key elements he left off his list that his team's historical record offers us:

1) Draft for next season not last year - The key component to Doug's success is his ability to not be swayed by previous numbers and to take guys that will perform better in the coming year.   It's a remarkable talent.   Just last year, what turned into a rebuilding season for renown All-Stars, he selected Kevin Durant in the 2nd (who turned in a .946 and will be a 1st round selection this season), Tony Parker late in the 2nd (who turned in an improbable .979 and will be a 1st round selection this season) and two of the years best KF Rookies, Kevin Love and Russell Westbrook in the 6th and 7th respectively.   Had his team gained momentum early, he would have gotten two 1st round performers out of two 2nd round picks (I can't do justice to how much harder this is than it sounds) and had some solid keepers to bolster his team.   

2) Don't grow attached to the players or the team - When things weren't going Trinidad's way, Doug didn't hesitate to pull the plug.   He dealt his top players early, impacting the whole league (Tony Paker and Kevin Durant ended up playing on opposite sides of the championship game), and getting his pickings from the leagues top keepers.  This season his team returns with Rondo (8), Bargnani (8) and Calderon (10), players that can not only round out his rotation to start the season, but also chips that can be cashed in for top level talent if he wants to stock up for a a 4th title run.

3) A fair trade is a bad trade - Doug does not do a deal unless he believes he's fleecing the other GM.  Honestly he just doesn't.  We know this.  Which of course begs the question - Why does anyone ever accept a trade with Doug?

The Mercenaries

These guys don't spend to much time worrying about pre-draft positioning or next season.  But they draft from the entire player pool, and have no qualms about taking the guys no one else wants.   Zach Randolph and Charlie Villanueva end up on their teams.  Give them Kobe any day. Eddy Curry.  Back in the day they would take Karl Malone.    Or Sam Cassell.   Or Latrell Sprewell.  Nowadays they'd be happy to build a Carlos Boozer and Michael Beasly frontline.   Add a little Jermaine O"neal in for good measure.   Karma be damned.   They scour the waiver wire for over performing malcontents no one wants.  And then when they sense weakness in another GM, they pounce!; peddling their bad apples as aged fruit and stealing their opponents cheese.  That's right.  They steal your cheese!

To date I count two OR titles that have gone the way of the Mercs.   The 2001 title that Antonio's San Juan Supersonics (then known as the Baboons) took and the 2007 title JCPeery's Provo Jomegamen walked away with after a perfect season. 

I don't have the data for the 2001 season handy (does anyone?)  But its easy to look back at the 2007 season and marvel at JCPeery's mercenary masterpiece.

Provo took Kobe in the 1st, Marcus Camby in the 2nd and Zach Randolph with the 1st pick of the 3rd.  I'm not even kidding.  You can look it up,

Kobe posted a 1.106. Camby played the entire season and posted a .917.  Randolph had a career high 1.052 - his only four digit showing to date.

Peery followed that up with Sean May (also in the 3rd) and Richard Hamilton (4th). 

He then took Eddy Curry in the 5th as well as Randy Foye. Bargnani in the 6th. Grant Hill in the 7th. JJ Reddick in the 8th.   With no picks in the 9th, 10th, 11th or 12th - he wrapped the live draft up with Flip Murray in the 13th and Sean Marks in the 14th.

Who could root for that team?  Only it's mother.

Three weeks into the season he turned the first pick of the 15th round (which i believe was originally ZZRay's) into Kevin Martin - one of the best 15th round selections in Association history.   He later selected Matt Barnes with his own 15th rounder.

Eight weeks into the season he swindled a stumbling Frenchlick squad worried about missing the postseason into taking Foye (3) and Eddy Curry (3) in exchange for an injured Chris Paul and an injured Yao.  Both returned later in the season.

Ten weeks into the season the Jomegamen parlayed Martin (13) and Barnes (13) into Steve Nash and Elton Brand.

Along the way he sprinkled the likes of Jalen Rose and Al Harrington on his shiny new superstars.

Voila.  Unstoppable force. 

The Rebuilders

"I feel like the Clippers must feel ever year"   -ZZRay

Well imagine how you would feel if you had this squad. 

Teams that decide to go for the title and blow their keeper load, come back to a pretty awful picture. 

Straight draft picks?  Ouch.  

Best thing is to do is take some chances.  Swing for the fences.  As NY, Trinidad and Provo have proved there is gold to mine in every round.   It possible to pick a championship team from scratch. 

And if not, its possible to restock in a single season as long as you decide early, have solid stars to offer and hold out for the best keepers.

But you have to pay attention and stay active or the windows of opportunity will pass you by. 

The Systemizers

The systemizers all about the numbers.   These are the statgeeks that bypass hype, hoopla, and NBA knowledge in favor of unfiltered data (i.e. past performance).   They use calculations and formulas to value, rate and draft players.  Then they sit back and wait for the results to come in.  They don't watch the games or read ESPN's daily articles.  They don't like and dislike players or have opinions on how trades, FA signings and rookies will effect output.   Ugh!  Talk about taking the fun out of Kentucky Fried Basketball.

The strategy peaked in 2004 - before mid-season keeper trading and pre-draft positioning became the norm, giving an inherent advantage to more active GMs - when the Brooklyn Brewers defeated the NorthHampton Nittany Nerds in a sad, sad, sad championship game that culminated in a 168.8 to 168.0 final score.    Ugh!

Last year we saw the mini-resurgence of the systemizers as NorthHampton shook up the genre by incorporating an early-season keeper for star trade (Calderon (10) for Tony Parker) that helped propel them to the title.  

Hopefully the comeback of their ilk is short lived.

The Deadbeats

 Yeah they know who they are.  And they proly won't read this anyway.  They are the obstacle course around which the rest of the league must navigate, unavailable to respond to trade requests or update their rosters, they stumble towards mediocrity, fielding postseason teams that aren't good enough to compete and loser bracket participants that fail to restock with future assets.

And those my friends are some of components that make up the Original Recipe.