I think its depends greatly on the position your playing. Sort of like distance from the button in Poker.
If you're a top contender next season (w/ maybe a couple of star keepers like the Brocheese) then you want safe picks at the top. TD, KG, Lebron, Melo, Arenas. If you need a little something extra on the other hand (like the Jomegamen for example) then you need to take risks and hope they pan out. Like Camby, Eddy Curry, Sean May and Ike Diogu.