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Keeper Induced Draft Lag...

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colonel Posted: 07-17-2006 6:36 PM
The Large Computing Machines have been humming all afternoon, and have calculated how much draft lag is expected in each round - due to projected keepers...

I.e. if you have the first pick in the 4th round, you cannot draft a whole bunch of guys already assigned as later round keepers...  We have quantified this phenomenon.

In summary...  The numbers refer to how many spots on the draftboard you are getting screwed by.

Round Total
1 2.00
2 3.41
3 5.41
4 13.82
5 14.24
6 15.71
7 16.88
8 16.71
9 15.29
10 15.00
11 13.65
12 10.00
13 6.47
14 4.82
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mrobison replied on 07-17-2006 7:19 PM
I'm working (with lots of help from the interns and probably the Large Computing Machines) on a project that will look at keepers by league, and make use of league specific data on lag.  It got to two full rounds in the middle of the OR before my spreadsheet program got ornery and stopped doing any math.
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broham replied on 07-17-2006 7:30 PM
Note the difference in lag by round...

Round Total Difference
1 2
2 3.41 1.41
3 5.41 2.00
4 13.82 8.41
5 14.24 0.42
6 15.71 1.47
7 16.88 1.17
8 16.71 -0.17
9 15.29 -1.42
10 15 -0.29
11 13.65 -1.35
12 10 -3.65
13 6.47 -3.53
14 4.82 -1.65



Reveals a huge uptick in the "keeper lag" in the 4th round. (Equivalent in fact to the sum of all other positive difs.)

Though it cannot be statiscally proven by the numbers above (we'd need to know total additions and substractions per, not just net)... I believe this occurs because a majority of the true surprises last year (aka the good keepers in the 8th, 9th, 13th, etc.) are ranked as fourth rounders next season.
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broham replied on 07-17-2006 7:33 PM
The 4th as I believe it is currently ranked...

C Channing Frye NYK 49 1 65 802 53 374 30 47 1306 1540 23.7 0.848
G Mike James MIN 50 5 79 1604 460 262 72 3 2401 2886 36.5 0.832
G Joe Johnson ATL 51 5 82 1653 536 335 103 31 2658 3299 40.2 0.806
G Jameer Nelson ORL 52 2 62 905 303 180 71 8 1467 1752 28.3 0.837
F Al Jefferson BOS 53 2 59 464 30 299 30 46 869 1036 17.6 0.839
F Boris Diaw PHO 54 3 81 1080 503 558 58 85 2284 2834 35.0 0.806
G Eddie House PHO 55 6 81 796 148 132 42 12 1130 1385 17.1 0.816
F Andres Nocioni CHI 56 2 82 1063 117 500 40 52 1772 2202 26.9 0.805
F Kenyon Martin DEN 57 6 56 720 79 353 43 52 1247 1522 27.2 0.819
F Lamar Odom LAL 58 7 80 1186 443 738 75 64 2506 3185 39.8 0.787
F David West NOH 59 3 74 1262 92 539 61 64 2018 2490 33.6 0.810
F Caron Butler WAS 60 4 75 1318 186 465 127 18 2114 2673 35.6 0.791
C Nenad Krstic NJN 61 2 80 1080 88 513 32 63 1776 2432 30.4 0.730
C Charlie Villanueva MIL 62 1 81 1053 88 521 60 63 1785 2323 28.7 0.768
C Alonzo Mourning MIA 63 13 65 509 11 359 13 173 1065 1271 19.6 0.838
G Richard Hamilton DET 64 7 80 1609 275 256 52 16 2208 2791 34.9 0.791
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broham replied on 07-17-2006 7:41 PM
Except for Odom, Kenyon Martin and Rip Hamilton, these guys are association wide late round keepers.

I would summarize executively as follows:
 
"Given that the rankings remain relatively similar, drafting in a keeper league is like drafting without the fourth round."


Does this make a fourth round valued keeper par for continuing teams?

Or at least that you need one of your top four players next season to be a keeper?
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ciwasko replied on 07-17-2006 8:07 PM
I'm not afraid to say it.  I love you boys.  This has been my favorite topic for some time now and you've finally given it the attention it deserves.  KFBA KFBA KFBA

But have you given any thought to how the KIDG varies among new versus older leagues?  I know that a 6th rounder in the OR is about as useful as a cock flavored lollipop (i.e., is equivalent to an 8th rounder).  But this is not the case in a league that's only been around for a year or two.  Please discuss ...
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mrobison replied on 07-17-2006 9:13 PM
My project is league specific.  It isn't to generate those numbers for each league, but actually much more.  In the process, I can probably compute Keeper Induced Draft Lag for each league.
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broham replied on 07-17-2006 10:32 PM
 ciwasko wrote:
I know that a 6th rounder in the OR is about as useful as a cock flavored lollipop (i.e., is equivalent to an 8th rounder).  But this is not the case in a league that's only been around for a year or two.  Please discuss ...


I'm not 100% sure that the correlation exists, but if it in fact does (and we have the data to find outThumbs up) you'd still have to wonder about causation; older leagues tend to have more experienced owners and, more importantly, draft earlier.
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broham replied on 07-17-2006 10:35 PM
 mrobison wrote:
My project is league specific.  It isn't to generate those numbers for each league, but actually much more.  In the process, I can probably compute Keeper Induced Draft Lag for each league.



We need a good name for this.  Mrobison's Grand Keeper Project? 
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mrobison replied on 07-17-2006 11:17 PM
 broham wrote:
 ciwasko wrote:
I know that a 6th rounder in the OR is about as useful as a cock flavored lollipop (i.e., is equivalent to an 8th rounder).  But this is not the case in a league that's only been around for a year or two.  Please discuss ...


I'm not 100% sure that the correlation exists, but if it in fact does (and we have the data to find outThumbs up) you'd still have to wonder about causation; older leagues tend to have more experienced owners and, more importantly, draft earlier.
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mrobison replied on 07-17-2006 11:20 PM
There we go again. 

When I quote, it deletes my comments.

I said something about the older leagues having more chance to get good players earlier. 
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broham replied on 07-18-2006 4:51 PM
Avg Keeper Induced Draft Lag by League age


Round 1 year 2 year 3 year
1 2.0 2.0 2.0
2 2.7 3.5 3.8
3 5.2 4.8 5.4
4 13.5 13.0 14.4
5 13.3 14.0 15.6
6 13.8 15.8 17.4
7 14.8 16.3 18.8
8 15.0 16.8 18.4
9 13.5 14.5 17.2
10 13.8 14.8 15.8
11 12.8 13.5 15.0
12 10.3 10.0 9.8
13 7.0 7.8 4.6
14 4.5 6.8 3.4


1 year leagues: Crazy 88s, ABC, Hamster, Kung Fu, Octagon, Paris Hilton

2 year leagues: Johnny Walker, Travishamockery, Cowbell, Fantashizzle

3 year leagues: Greatest Show, Sugar Ray, B-League, Turnpike, Expertation


Original Recipe and BBB.net were excluded...
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broham replied on 07-18-2006 4:53 PM
Summarized executively...  A correlation does indeed exist between the age of a league and total keeper lag...especially in the late middle rounds...
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broham replied on 07-18-2006 4:54 PM
Most interestinly every single one of the 17 leagues surveyed projects a keeper lag of 2 in the first round...
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mrobison replied on 07-18-2006 5:27 PM
Most of the time, it's Amare and Carmello.  A couple older leagues still have Wade as a 2nd round keeper.

Does your system count it as lag if Wade, for example, is a first round keeper?  Actually, I guess it must, or 1st round lag would be zero.  Does Howard (16th ranked) count as lag if he's a 1st round keeper?
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