Renewing the trade debate

I seem to remember at some point last year there was talk of a rules adjustment regarding the trading of superstars for superkeepers, as in maybe restricting the trading of guys drafted in the first 2 rounds.  I was wondering if there had been more thought on that, because in the Johnny Walker All-Stars last year there were some dramatic trades as early as week 7 that basically left everyone else playing for pride.  I'm not suggesting there was any sort of collusion, or even that there is a solution that will work, I just thought we could try to come up with something that doesn't discourage folks from continuing to play.

Since I lost at least a couple leagues last year to teams that had gathered "stars" (In one case five or six players from the first two rounds), I certainly share your concern.  However, my Kung fu team, which finished third, not only with no trades for stars, but with no draft picks in the first two rounds, shows that it can be done. 

If there's going to be a rule, I think it has to be humans, not formulas, making the call.  There are too many variations in when people are drafted, and too many special situations, to try and make formulas.

Obviously I'm still new to this so I don't know how things pan out fully. But from the sounds of it it would be very sensible if there was a rule something along the lines of not being able to trade anybody from the top two draft rounds for anybody from below say the 4th round. I think this would be pretty fair in terms of keepers and might encourage owners to try for this year rather than giving in early and trying to build a squad for next year. To me that latter tactic makes little sense in a fantasy league, you've just got to go for it and rethink in the summer if needs be.

Just my two-penneth....

peterg wrote:

Obviously I'm still new to this so I don't know how things pan out fully. But from the sounds of it it would be very sensible if there was a rule something along the lines of not being able to trade anybody from the top two draft rounds for anybody from below say the 4th round. I think this would be pretty fair in terms of keepers and might encourage owners to try for this year rather than giving in early and trying to build a squad for next year. To me that latter tactic makes little sense in a fantasy league, you've just got to go for it and rethink in the summer if needs be. Just my two-penneth....

Part of the point of "keepers for stars" is that if things haven't worked out, trading for next year can keep you interested. 

Rules like you suggest sound good, but I just saw Rasheed go in the 2nd in one league.  It wouldn't surprise me if he went in the 5th in some other league.  Last week I traded pick 10 for a 4th rounder (Paul).  Is that going to upset the balance in the league?

Finally, what about two for one?  If I trade, say May and Diogu (both with 4th round rights for next year) for Garnett and a scrub, it could help both teams right now.

mrobison wrote:

Part of the point of "keepers for stars" is that if things haven't worked out, trading for next year can keep you interested.  Rules like you suggest sound good, but I just saw Rasheed go in the 2nd in one league.  It wouldn't surprise me if he went in the 5th in some other league.  Last week I traded pick 10 for a 4th rounder (Paul).  Is that going to upset the balance in the league? Finally, what about two for one?  If I trade, say May and Diogu (both with 4th round rights for next year) for Garnett and a scrub, it could help both teams right now.

I don't see how Rasheed going in the second (value being only what someone is willing to spend), or Chris Paul being traded for a first round pick would be a problem for a system similar to the one I suggested.

I do agree though that trades involving more than one player on each side would be very problematic, you make a very good point. I guess if some kind of rule were to be worked out it would need some serious thought, and also league wide approval.

Having not even started my first season yet, I'm probably talking bull anyway!

peterg wrote:

I don't see how Rasheed going in the second (value being only what someone is willing to spend), or Chris Paul being traded for a first round pick would be a problem for a system similar to the one I suggested.

The point is that you were suggesting that a 2nd rounder for a 5th, for example, would be unfair, but in some cases, the same person could be a fifth or second (especially true with the late drafting leagues).  You could get the same trade being "unfair" in opposite directions in two different leagues. 

I've got Nocioni in the 9th in a couple leagues.  Would trading him for Pau Gasol (2nd rounder for some reason) be unfair?  To whom?

Very good points, all.  Especially regarding trades that could help both sides yet involve only one highly-drafted player.
Still, these trades have unbalanced the leagues, and like I said thay started happening way too early last year.  The system of playing for draft position certainly helped--by midseason I was convinced I had only an average team, but was able to win the 1st overall pick--that was my choice; since the best keepers had already been traded for and 2 or 3 teams had already loaded up on all the top tier players, it was the only choice I had. 
I'll have to stew on this for awhile before I can offer any real suggestions to the authorities.

This year Baron Davis was drafted in the 3rd round in some leagues. Many owners think that he's a 2nd round talent. If we prohibited trading keepers for players drafted in the first and second rounds it wouldn't prevent a team from trading Baron Davis if they got him early in the 3rd.

Last year Carmelo was drafted in the 3rd in some leagues and blossomed into a 1st round player. If we had this rule last year, it wouldn't have prevented some teams from trading Melo for late keepers.

If we had a dynamic list of the top 32 players that's updated weekly we can say that these 32 players can't be traded for players drafted below the 4th round. But that wouldn't be a solution either because the disparity between player #32 and player #33 could be very small. It wouldn't be fair for teams that own player #32 to see another team trade player #33 while they're stuck with player #32 on a losing team with no hope of making the playoffs. Also, whether or not a player is in the top 32 is subjective.

Suppose we had a KFAvg cutoff. This is more objective but still problematic. We can say that no player above .900 can be traded for players drafted below round 4. That wouldn't work either because then Ray Allen (.902) can't be traded while Corey Maggette (.893) can. The guy who owns Ray Allen on a team that wont make the playoffs will be stuck with him while another team is able to trade Maggette for deep keepers. You might even see weird stuff happening like the owner waiting for Ray Allen to have a down week so that his KFAvg is a shade below .900 so that he can trade him for a keeper.

In some leagues there are only a handful of teams that can really compete for the title because they own ridiculous keepers. In these leagues, as early as the last month or two, I've seen teams with no hope of winning this season trade second rounders for deep keepers like Diaw so that they can get a head start for the following season. How do you tell these owners that the keepers they paid so much for now have less value because they can't be redeemed for 1st / 2nd round talent next year? In the Crazy 88's league I traded my 1st round pick for some deep keepers so that I can prepare for next season. It would kinda suck to know that these keepers can't be traded for anything more than 3rd round talent.

With any rule you are going to have exceptions that might seem unfair. But to use your example, if the owners of a league thought Baron Davis was a second round talent, then somebody should have taken him in the second round. Drafting players is a subjective process, we choose whom we think will perform this year and opinions are bound to differ. Also if you trade away a top 2 rounds pick for a keeper, why do this just to trade back into the top 2 rounds?

The logic of KFBA is starting to baffle me a little. All I know is that I'm going to do my best this year and worry about next year when it comes around. I'll leave the rules up to the head honcho's for now.

Yeah KFBA has some odd rules, but I guess that's what makes it much more fun than ESPN, Sportsline, or Yahoo.

Draft choices are subject to variance. Just because Baron Davis isn't drafted in the 2nd Round doesn't mean that he's not a 2nd round talent. But this is besides the point. My point is you can never set a cutoff for prohibiting keepers for superstars. If you set the cutoff after Round 2, you're going to allow some 3rd Round players who are as good if not better than 2nd Round players to be traded for keepers. Any rule that attempts to prohibit keepers for superstars is going to be intrinsically flawed because you don't know where to draw the line. Any rule we can come up with will have its drawbacks. Why should we even try to change what we already have?

You trade a Round 1 / Round 2 pick for a keeper if you anticipate that you're not going to make the playoffs. It increases your chances of winning next season. You're trading a "Top 2 Round" for a keeper so that you can get a "Top 2 Round" back next season, to add to your Round 1 through Round 14 draft picks (minus the pick you used to keep the keeper of course). Think of a deep keeper as a means of transferring a "Top 2 Round" pick from one year to the next.

Yeah I think you are probably right about that. I'm looking forward to the season starting and learning on the fly. Roll on the 31st (when the Bulls beat the Heat).

The Bulls are fun to root for.

Hey Peter, aren't you in The Big 16? I can't wait for the draft. Fresh, new league.

trantony wrote:

Yeah KFBA has some odd rules, but I guess that's what makes it much more fun than ESPN, Sportsline, or Yahoo. Draft choices are subject to variance. Just because Baron Davis isn't drafted in the 2nd Round doesn't mean that he's not a 2nd round talent. But this is besides the point. My point is you can never set a cutoff for prohibiting keepers for superstars. If you set the cutoff after Round 2, you're going to allow some 3rd Round players who are as good if not better than 2nd Round players to be traded for keepers. Any rule that attempts to prohibit keepers for superstars is going to be intrinsically flawed because you don't know where to draw the line. Any rule we can come up with will have its drawbacks. Why should we even try to change what we already have? You trade a Round 1 / Round 2 pick for a keeper if you anticipate that you're not going to make the playoffs. It increases your chances of winning next season. You're trading a "Top 2 Round" for a keeper so that you can get a "Top 2 Round" back next season, to add to your Round 1 through Round 14 draft picks (minus the pick you used to keep the keeper of course). Think of a deep keeper as a means of transferring a "Top 2 Round" pick from one year to the next.

It's more than transfering from one year to the next.  I trade for keepers with the intention that they will help my team, ideally right away, but at least long term.  You never know, of course (even with top picks) but if Darko, Green, or some others live up to the potential they are supposed to have, I get a 1st or 2nd round talent with a 7th or 10th round pick.  Then, I can with the league without trading my keepers, and really build a dynasty. 

Bwa ha ha!

Last year Baron Davis went around #17 and Channing Frye about 160, in most leagues. 

trantony wrote:

The Bulls are fun to root for. Hey Peter, aren't you in The Big 16? I can't wait for the draft. Fresh, new league.

yep I think tonight's draft could be very interesting, I've been researching late round picks all week, I'm pretty keen on taking risks with these picks.

peterg wrote:

trantony wrote: The Bulls are fun to root for. Hey Peter, aren't you in The Big 16? I can't wait for the draft. Fresh, new league. yep I think tonight's draft could be very interesting, I've been researching late round picks all week, I'm pretty keen on taking risks with these picks.

Super sleeper:

#40 Ryan Bowen Forward, Houston Rockets Height: 6' 9" Weight: 220 lbs Age: 30 College/Country: Iowa Rank: 401 Projected Draft Round: 26 YTD 30 day 10 day Mins 625 0 0 KFAvg 0.360 0.000 0.000 Profile Game Log 2005-06 Game Log 2004-05 Game Log 2003-04 KFBA Stats KFBA Season Season Mins KFP KFAvg 1st Half 2nd Half Playoffs High Low Variance APS 1999-00 589 317 0.538 2000-01 696 383 0.550 2001-02 1688 831 0.492 2002-03 996 528 0.530 0.466 0.594 0.627 0.952 0.000 .051 15.70 2003-04 393 185 0.471 0.519 0.443 0.421 1.250 0.000 .106 8.11 2004-05 604 233 0.386 0.329 0.390 0.398 0.667 0.000 .035 7.42 2005-06 625 225 0.360 0.377 0.337 0.333 0.619 0.000 .029 8.07 NBA Stats Season Team Gms FG% FT% 3P% Mins/G Pts/G Assts/G Rbds/G Stls/G Blks/G KFAvg 2002-03 DEN 62 16.1 3.6 0.9 2.5 1.0 0.5 0.530 2003-04 DEN 52 7.6 0.9 0.3 1.7 0.3 0.3 0.471 2004-05 HOU 66 42% 67% 50% 9.2 1.7 0.3 1.2 0.3 0.1 0.386 2005-06 HOU 54 30% 79% 14% 11.6 1.6 0.4 1.6 0.4 0.1 0.360