Two questions;
1. How good do you think he needs to be this year to be a first round keeper? .900? .950?
2. How is he ranked #79; right between Joe Smith and Jared Dudley?
He's becoming a better NBA player each week and I personally think he's going to finish the KF season around the .900 mark. I would keep him with a late first in most leagues if he posts anything above .900. He is going to be an incredible player.
He's ranked 79 because the rankings aren't particularly up to date as far as I can tell. I think sorting by KF Avg and disregarding players with low minutes is a more accurate way to rank.
mrobison: 2. How is he ranked #79; right between Joe Smith and Jared Dudley?
The current rankings are based on APS as of Wednesday November 28th (the day before the 1st round started).
APS - is the average points per game each player would yield had he been an F1, G1 or C1 for the first four weeks.
For the first four weeks Durant averaged less points than Joe Smith would have and slightly more than Jared Dudley would have.
Note that APS takes average and minutes into account.
mrobison:1. How good do you think he needs to be this year to be a first round keeper? .900? .950?
I'd say there are more factors that just his YTD average. If he posts a 1.200 over the last two months for example, his ytd will be irrelevant. How other players do makes a difference on how the 1st round shapes up as well. If Ginobili keeps this up, he's got to be 1st round material right?
Anyway if the year were to end today I think 12 players would be locks for the 1st round (and I'd have a hard time seeing Durant taken over any of them):
So I guess the question is how Durant ends up comparing with the second tier (the not sure thing 1st rounders at this point):
That's some serious competition. But I'd say that a .950 with enourmous upside ought to equal a first round selection.
I think if Durant put up .950, or was over 1.000 for the playoffs, I'd take him over anyone in your second group other than Dirk, Smith and Jefferson. Of course, that puts him at #16.
And if Ginobili keeps this up, he's Wade. And it's possible; he's that good, they keep him around 30 minutes; so he can play all out all the time, and they're trying to ease the load on Duncan.
Sorry, I just realized that Mike's question was an "Ask the Broham" post...
All answers are welcome!
He would have to be an over .900 player doing over .950 at the end of the season for me to take him in the first. The difference between .900 and 1.0 is huge. However, if he ends the year over .900 I bet he will get kept/picked in the first round in some leagues. People tend to overdraft "potential" and underdraft Boozer.
So far, the strangest first round pick (well, other than Shaq) might have been the best.
mrobison:So far, the strangest first round pick (well, other than Shaq) might have been the best. Round: 1-2 | 3-4 | 5-6 | 7-8 | 9-10 | 11-12 | 13-14 | 15-16 Round 1 1Willis City NineteenTim Duncan | C | San Antonio 2Mineola CasheolaYao Ming | C | Houston 3Pasadena PacersLeBron James | F | Cleveland 4Toronto Triple DoublesKobe Bryant | G | Los Angeles 5Mars BlackmonGilbert Arenas | G | Washington 6Saigon Tunnel RatsDirk Nowitzki | F | Dallas 7Brighton Rio Grande Community College RedmenKevin Garnett | F | Boston 8Montpelier MuskratsDwyane Wade | G | Miami 9Shake 'N' BakeTracy McGrady | G | Houston 10Isiah Thomas Loves the Bulls and Anucha Browne SandersDwight Howard | F | Orlando 11Raleigh Carnies of CaryCarlos Boozer | F | Utah 12DAGO BALLOONKNOTSAmare Stoudemire | F | Phoenix 13Dryden BuckeyesCarmelo Anthony | F | Denver 14Dallas Show-StoppersK Emmanuel Ginobili | G | San Antonio 15Spain golden teamPau Gasol | F | Memphis 16Mr. Mastodon FarmJermaine O'Neal | C | Indiana
Still think they could have gotten him at 19, though.