Regular Season Totals:
Week 1: 8-8 Week 2: 8-7-1 Week 3: 9-7 Week 4: 8-6 Week 5: 9-5 Week 6: 7-7 Week 7: 7-5-1 Week 8: 7-6 Week 9: 5-8 Week 10: 10-5 Week 11: 12-4 Week 12: 7-9 Week 13: 6-10 Week 14: 9-7 Week 15: 10-5-1 Week 16: 7-9 Week 17: 9-7 Season: 138-115-3
Wild Card Weekend Picks:
CIN -2.5 over NYJ
DAL -4 over PHI
NE -3 over BAL
GB pk over ARI
Full Playoff Predictions: DAL over MIN, NO over GB, SD over NE, IND over CIN, NO over DAL, SD over IND - Super Bowl: SD over NO
Enjoy! The 11 most exciting games of the year...
@schottsie
Finished off the weekend with an epic offensive battle for the ages! Congrats to the Ravens on a thoroughly impressive performance. Philly simply ran into a buzzsaw...MIN (8-0 at home) is only -2.5 vs DAL, which speaks volumes...realize after the fact that CIN was fatally flawed and still believe that J-E-T-S still suck suck suck...after seeing ARI spread move to +3, switched and took them in "real life" betting, which I have done from time to time - still counts as a loss on the official picks but was nice to break even this weekend.
Opening lines:
NO -7 vs. ARI ... line should stay right at 7 - over under 57...how high could it go?
IND -6.5 vs. BAL ... should move to -6 as BAL has made believers out of many
MIN -2.5 vs. DAL ... should be -1 or a pick by gametime, as the DAL victory seems inevitable
SD -7.5 vs. NYJ ... should move to -9 by gametime - don't know if they will cover, as NYJ have a history of covering these types of games with overmatched teams, but SD is a LOCK to win.
GREATEST WEEKEND OF FOOTBALL PICKS:
(1-3 last week)
ARI +7 (NO to win)
IND -6.5 (toughest game on the board)
DAL +2.5 (should be an all-time classic)
SD -7 (SD is a LOCK to win - spread moved down from 7.5 - crazy)
So I obviously can't think rationally about the hated Jets...
After a solid season, sadly only 2-6 ATS this postseason...let's get that to 5-6:
New Orleans -3.5: I like the Saints to win the whole thing - it has really been them, IND and SD as potential champs all year. MIN is solid and even shocking last week, but can't forget the clunkers on the road at ARI, CAR and CHI which all mattered...do NOT bet against the SuperDome crowd in this spot.
New York Jets +7.5: Love the Colts to win, but the 7.5 is a bit high for this type of game. Will be somewhere in between 24-13 and a squeaker, but will take the points.
IND vs. NO could be an all-time classic SuperBowl - last second drama or overtime...at this point, don't think anyone can stop Sean Payton's play calling.
SB Spreads:
IND -3 over NO
IND -6 over MIN
NO -7 over NYJ
MIN -3 over NYJ
Instead of betting the NYJ +7.5 and NO -3.5 as I officially predicted Championship week...did the smart thing and took the 2-team teaser with IND -2 and NO +2.5....the official SB pick is NO +4.5 but after sucking ATS for two straight years in the playoffs, we might have to change next year to a "pretend bankroll" format in this space, at least for the playoffs - here's hoping for a CLASSIC!
IND -200
NO +165
Interesting alternate lines:
NO -3.5 (+260)
IND -7.5 (+150)
This is horrible - if you want to change overtime so everyone gets the ball, make it a 10 or 15 minute extra session but keep the rules of the game of football intact! So first possession, 4th and 1 going in from the 10 in overtime - do you even think about kicking the field goal or just go for the first down and touchdown to end the game - that is not football!
3/23/10:
NFL owners have approved a recommendation by the competition committee to change the overtime rules for postseason games. The vote was 28-4, with Baltimore, Buffalo, Cincinnati and Minnesota voting against the change, according to NFL Network.
NFL commissioner Roger Goodell had gone on record Monday as favoring the proposal.
Under the new rule, if the team winning the OT coin toss makes a field goal on its first possession of the extra period, the other team would get a possession, with a chance to either tie the game with a field goal or win it with a touchdown. If it tied the game with a field goal of its own, the old sudden-death rules would then take effect, with the next team to score winning the game.
“We felt like this year’s proposal, which we call ‘modified sudden death,’ was really an opportunity to make what we think is a pretty good rule — sudden death — even better,” Falcons president and competition committee co-chair Rich McKay said. “We felt like statistically it needed to be changed, that the (old way) wasn’t producing the ‘fairest result,’ if you will, based on the effect of field-goal accuracy and distance and the drive start.”
Statistics have shown that since 1994, when kickoffs were moved back five yards to the 30-yard line, the team winning the overtime coin toss has won 59.8 percent of the 244 OT games, whereas the team losing the coin toss has won only 38.5 percent of those games. Moreover, with more domed stadiums and the improvement in field-goal kicking, 72.5 percent of OT games have been decided by a field goal during that 16-year period, compared to only 25.4 percent being decided by a touchdown.
The rules for regular-season overtime games will not change.